Can anyone really tell you what things will be like in 10, 20 or 30 years into your retirement? My articles here at RetirementSingularity.com involve painting some pictures as to how technology will radically shape our future (and what we can and should do about it), but how reliable is this forecasting?
The track record of accurately predicting the future may seem to be little more that guesswork. As the often heard refrain from those who make fun of predicting the future goes, “Hey dude! Where’s my flying car?” However, research has shown that there are many factors that can make some people better at prediction than others.
A recent article by Walter Frick in the Harvard Business Review summarized some of these factors that included;
- Expertise in the field and general intelligence helps
- Practice improves performance
- Teams outperform individuals
- Open-minded people make better predictions
So, dear reader of the blog, you might (and probably should) wonder how Michael Nuschke (i.e. me) ranks in these areas. In terms of these 4 factors, here is where I see myself ;
- Expertise & Intelligence; I have over 30 years experience in retirement planning, and hold a number of professional designations. As to being a furturist, I’ve been at this for over 5 years and have done much research and attended professional conferences. As to intelligence, I am smart enough to not say too much.
- Practice: As mentioned, practice in retirement issues and providing advice is extensive (over 30 years), while practice in making calls on the future can be perhaps tied to the beginning of this blog about 4.5 years ago.
- Teams: Beyond just reading and talking to other researchers and futurists, I am a member of the Techcast Global’s “panel of experts” who contribute their views towards a collaborative forecast on a broad range of future issues. As a member, I also have access to the results of this method which has helped inform my views.
- Open-mindedness; For more than 30 years meditation has been my key practice to train in open-mindedness. Meditation is an extraordinary tool we all have access to, and that can help us understand how we view and think about the world.
All that being said, there is a general principal that futurists or those involved with forecasting subscribe to; the further out you go, the less reliable the forecast. Nevertheless, when it comes to planning your future including your retirement, the biggest mistake I see is assuming things will not change much. I look forward to continuing the exploration of future trends and sharing the likely impacts to your life and retirement here.
Live long, live well, and prosper!
BTW, here is your flying car.
Image: Courtesy of Design-Engine.com
Video: Courtesy of AeroMobil