Big Idea: Cheap Abundance vs. Stubborn Scarcity

New tools like artificial intelligence (AI) and robots promise to make lots of things cheaper. Futurist David Shapiro says anything these smart machines can “touch”—software, basic office work, factory goods, even some foods—will keep dropping in cost. But a few items tied to land, rare minerals, or top computer chips may stay pricey. Picture a barbell: one side full of super‑cheap basics, the other side holding a few stubbornly expensive things.

How Prices Might Fall in Four Quick Waves

1. 2025‑2026 – Digital Help on the Cheap
   AI “copilots” will write memos, translate languages, and draft simple legal papers. Small businesses pay less for office work, so services get cheaper.
2. 2026‑2027 – Big‑Company Paperwork Shrinks
   Large firms will let AI agents run payroll, invoices, and customer emails. Lower back‑office costs can mean lower prices for things we buy from those firms.
3. 2027‑2028 – Robots Do Simple Physical Jobs
   New human‑shaped robots stock shelves, clean floors, and deliver packages. Stores, hotels, and warehouses cut labor bills—and can pass savings to shoppers.
4. 2029‑2030 – Power and Factory Goods Get Cheap
   Better solar power, giant batteries, and maybe early fusion plants slash electric bills. AI‑run “lights‑out” factories pump out products and some foods at very low cost.

Three Roadblocks That Could Slow the Decline

These hurdles won’t stop every cost drop, but they can stretch the timeline and cause bumps along the way.

What It Means for Your Wallet

• Essentials Could Get Cheap. By 2030, monthly power bills might fall to about $15, fast internet to $5, and basic groceries to roughly half of today’s cost.
• Housing May Stay High. Good city land is limited, so rents could keep climbing unless towns open more space or share land profits with residents.
• New Ways to Earn. If wages shrink, local “dividend funds” might pay households a share of solar farms or data‑center profits.
• Smart Investing. Owning pieces of scarce items—prime land, chip factories, battery metals—could matter more than old‑style bonds if inflation stays low.

My Take

Trade battles, mineral shortages, and slow AI rules can delay or even bump prices up for a while. Still, I believe the power of AI, robotics, and cheap clean energy is too big to stop. Over time they will push most everyday costs down and raise overall living standards. Exactly when each wave hits is uncertain, and I’ll be tracking technological deflation pressures closely – so stay flexible—but be ready for a future where essentials are far cheaper, and real value comes from how we use our extra time and freedom.

Live long, live well, and prosper!

Michael

References FYI;

“What is ‘Post‑Labor Economics’? — A Gentle Introduction.” Medium article explaining how AI and robotics push the price of most goods toward zero while shifting income to property dividends.
https://medium.com/@dave-shap/what-is-post-labor-economics-a-gentle-introduction-81aa265abbe0 Medium

“What do I mean when I say ‘Post‑Labor Economics’ anyways?” Substack essay that details Shapiro’s forecast for barbell‑shaped CPI—deeply negative for AI‑exposed goods and flat for land‑linked items—and why scarcity simply moves rather than disappears.
https://daveshap.substack.com/p/what-do-i-mean-when-i-say-post-labor

“The Global Impact of AI – Mind the Gap” – IMF Working Paper (2025). Offers fresh data showing AI could raise global productivity by roughly 1 % within five years, a key driver of technology‑led deflation. IMF eLibrary

“The Economic Potential of Generative AI: The Next Productivity Frontier” – McKinsey & Company (2023). Estimates generative AI could add $2.6–4.4 trillion in annual value, underlining how software automation can push prices down across many sectors. McKinsey & Company